Gardnerville Ranchos, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

177
FXUS65 KREV 260831
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
131 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Thunderstorm activity continues through Sunday. Potential
  impacts include heavy downpours and flooding, strong outflows,
  small hail, and lightning.

* Cooler than normal temperatures expected this weekend.

* A gradual warming trend returns next week, bringing highs up to
  near normal, but with continued chances for showers and storms
  in the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Showers and thunderstorms will once again form throughout the
  area by the late morning into the evening. The best chances
  will be in far western NV and the immediate Sierra (40-65%),
  with decreasing chances into the inner basin (30-50%). The weak
  upper low aloft will slightly shift east today, resulting in
  increased storm coverage for western NV and into the inner-basin
  compared to the last few days. With a near-similar environment
  per latest CAMs, storms will once again produce heavy rain, with
  PWATs between 0.6-0.8". Similar to yesterday, other hazards are
  to include gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning, small hail,
  and possible dust-storms. High-resolution solutions show
  continued chances for storms on Sunday, but with lower chances
  (20-35%) and coverage compared to today as the upper low moves
  out of the area.

* Looking at the synoptic pattern for Monday into at least
  Thursday, we`ll have a deep trough in the northeast Pacific and
  high pressure over the southeast US. This will allow for short-
  waves to move into the area, which will help with daily chances
  for convection. Blended guidance keeps a daily 15-30% chance for
  showers and storms impacting the Sierra and W.NV next week, with
  the best chances on Wednesday and Thursday. This time frame
  still shows the possibility of high-based convection.

* With the pattern in place, high temperatures will remain
  between 5-10 degrees below average this weekend. We have a
  slight warmup into mid-week, but highs remain 3-5 degrees below
  average for late July and the first days of August. -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions this morning will give way to MVFR conditions for
  some terminals as afternoon storms return to the region. Be
  aware of rapidly changing conditions as storms form, including
  LLWS, turbulence and mountain obscuration due to heavy rains.
  Showers today arrive in earnest around 20z, although some
  showers could develop as early as 18z. Storms should wrap up
  around 03z or until sunset, with the later showers hanging
  around Tahoe basin terminals KTVL and KTRK. Chances today around
  40-60% for all terminals. -McKellar

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Widespread thunderstorms and showers today, with chances ranging
  30-60%. Humidity will remain elevated, however a lightning
  strike outside of the wet cores of storms may ignite receptive
  fuels. Frequent lightning is expected through the evening.

* Sunday, lowering relative humidity at the surface along with
  instability aloft will provide an environment that could produce
  dry lightning. HRICH/McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$