Gardnerville Ranchos, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

659
FXUS65 KREV 261718
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1018 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Generally dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the
  week with elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns today.

* Temperatures around seasonal averages, then gradually rise to
  above average this weekend.

* Early next week, rain and storm chances return, while above
  average temperatures persist for early July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Looking at ensemble guidance, both the EC and GFS are depicting a
trough slung across Baja California, while a weak shortwave provides
a glancing blow to our north. This setup will determine our weather
in the days to come. First, the shortwave is in position to boost
our afternoon zephyr winds, with gusts in western Nevada approaching
30 mph this afternoon. Gusts along Sierra ridges could reach 35 mph.
This pattern will keep us mostly dry, although NAM guidance is
suggesting an isolated shower could appear over the Sierra in Mono
County, less than a 5% chance for this outcome. With dry air in
place over many days, relative humidity will remain low, around 5-
15% across much of western Nevada. This is the area of focus for
elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions for 3-6 hours
today. Relative humidity over the Sierra will range 10-25%, so less
concern over these areas.

Friday through Sunday a gradual and steady warmup takes hold as high
pressure dominates the region. Temperatures over western Nevada
valleys could approach 100 degrees by Sunday, with Sierra valleys
well into the upper 80s to low 90s. Monday looks just as hot. Due to
this building heat, a Moderate HeatRisk is expected for Sunday and
Monday. Speaking of Sunday and Monday, showers begin to arrive to NE
CA and far NW NV, along the OR border. It isn`t until Tuesday that
the aforementioned trough over Baja California finally makes it`s
way into our forecast notes. There are several model solutions in
disagreement as to how this will play out over our region, but gusty
winds and afternoon showers seem to be a persistent theme across
most ensemble guidance. Details on the `where` and `when` of
the system will emerge in the coming days. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail for all terminals today, with westerly
afternoon gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV,
most likely between 26/21Z-27/03Z. KMMH has a less than 5% chance
for isolated showers today. If a shower does form, gusty and
erratic winds may materialize in the vicinity. Best chances will
be between 26/21Z-27/03Z.

-HRICH/Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$